Market update

Bitcoin has just seen the biggest monthly candle in USD terms in history (A$40K/US$26K), with the price increasing 37% in November after the election. While there are some headwinds (the US government has just transferred A$1.45B/US$963M in seized Bitcoin (possibly to sell or possibly for custody), that amount pales in comparison to the A$9.9B/US$6.4B inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs in November. Bitcoin is currently up 1% for the week to trade around A$147,702 (US$96,110), while Ethereum gained 6% to trade around A$5,643 (US$3,653). XRP is back at 2018 prices, rewarding the faithful with another astonishing 90% gain this week. Solana fell 5%, with XRP overtaking it in market cap. Dogecoin gained 5%, Cardano rose 23%, and Shiba Inu increased 16%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 80, or Extreme Greed.

A massive Bitcoin sell wall at the psychological US$100K (A$153.8K) mark is proving difficult to overcome. Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, told CoinDesk it’s unlikely to fall any time soon. “I would expect we oscillate around these levels until the new year,” he told CoinDesk. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.6% to trade around A$144,150 (US$93.9K). Microstrategy’s Michael Saylor announced it had acquired another 55,500 Bitcoin today, and Galaxy Research says that most Bitcoin selling is coming from 2024 buyers who got in above A$86.1K/US$56K. The ETH/BTC ratio hit its lowest level in three years last week (0.0318) but bounced 15% to 0.3660 as Ethereum gained while Bitcoin retreated. Ethereum finished the week up 10% to trade around A$5,302 (US$3,411), and Bitcoin dominance has fallen slightly to 57.4%. Solana hit a new all-time high this week but fell back to finish the week -2%. Other altcoins have surged, including XRP, which gained 29%, and Cardano — which has just been awarded an A- rating by Weiss Crypto — gained 27%. Dogecoin rose 5%, and Shiba Inu was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 82, or Extreme Greed. 

Crypto publications are busy prepping their ‘Bitcoin breaks US$100K’ articles (A$154K), and MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor is already organising a party. With Bitcoin trading in a 7% range this week and nudging A$143K/US$93K on November 13, the milestone doesn’t seem far off. Retail appears to be coming back with a big increase in BTC transactions with values under A$154K/US$100K, and new money is flowing in with the total stablecoin index hitting a new all-time high. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are at lows last seen in 2018, and Bitcoin futures open interest is at an all-time high. That said, while the future for crypto looks bright, the Buffett Indicator (which takes the market cap of total US stocks and divides it by the US GDP) also sits at a record 208% — and topping 100% is considered an early warning of a potential crash. Bitcoin’s ATH comes at the expense of the ETH/BTC chart, which has fallen to 0.03367. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2% to trade around A$139,288 (US$90,147), while Ethereum fell 4% to A$4,925 (US$3,187). Solana gained another 10% as trading volume hit a new record. But SOL was outshone by XRP, which is up 86% this week. Cardano was up 24%, Dogecoin was up 3% (and 163% for the month), while Shiba Inu fell 18%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 90, or Extreme Greed.

Crypto markets are euphoric following pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump’s US election victory and the promise of a fresh start for the industry. Bitcoin has surged to a new inflation-adjusted all-time high and keeps going up. At the time of writing, it had gained 19.4% on a week ago to trade at A$135,190 (US$89,328). Analyst James Check said Bitcoin has entered the “euphoria zone by convincingly breaking through the previous cycle’s ATH.” Ethereum gained 40% this week to trade around A$5,115 (US$3,346). It’s expected to benefit considerably from the new administration, as many of the most interesting and useful financial use cases on ETH have been under a regulatory cloud for years. Solana also gained 40% and is only the fourth cryptocurrency to top an A$152B/US$100B market cap, XRP gained 22%, while Cardano surged 86% after founder Charles Hoskinson talked up his influence in Washington. Dogecoin gained 109%, as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) looks like it is becoming a reality, and fellow dog coin Shiba Inu gained 62%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76, or Extreme Greed.

After getting a little too carried away with the prospects of victory for pro-crypto Presidential candidate Donald Trump, crypto markets dropped six days in a row as polls remained stuck at 50/50 and prediction market odds tightened. However, Coinshares reports digital asset investment funds took US$2.2 billion (A$3.3B) in inflows over the past week, suggesting institutional confidence, while the Kimchi Premium for Bitcoin is back in South Korea, where it’s trading 2.2% higher than elsewhere. Elsewhere, Iran has suggested it may hit Israel again, which would likely affect crypto markets. “Uptober” lived up to its name, but Bitcoin’s 11% monthly gain was half the historical average. Bitcoin finished the week down 4% from seven days ago to trade around A$103,434 (US$68,382), while Ethereum fell 8% to A$3,653 (US$2,391). Solana dropped 11%, alongside XRP (-4%), Dogecoin (-3%), Cardano (-5%), and Shiba Inu (-7%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 70, or Greed.

After a sharp drop on the weekend due to Tether FUD and Israel’s tit-for-tat attack on Iran, Bitcoin has powered its way back to a three-month high above A$106.4K (the US$70K mark) thanks to optimism around the US election and Iran’s disinterest in escalation. The charts saw a Golden Cross, where the 50-day moving average exceeds the 200-day moving average, which often confirms a shift in momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 5% for the week, trading at around A$106,049 (US$70,101). Elsewhere, bearish retail sentiment surrounds ETH, with Solana hitting fresh highs against it and ETH/BTC plumbing new lows. However, long-term holders and whales continue to have high conviction in the roadmap, and A$6.1B ETH (US$4B) has been withdrawn from exchanges to HODL in just a few weeks. Ethereum finishes the week down 2% to trade around A$3,878 (US$2,550). Solana gained 7%, with great metrics around usage and volume; XRP lost 3%, Cardano fell 4%, and Shiba Inu was down 1.5%. Dogecoin got a 14% bump this week after being mentioned in Trump’s campaign event, with supporter Elon Musk set to head up the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) in the Trump administration. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 72, or Greed.