Market update

Bitcoin briefly topped A$50K (US$39K) this week, but it’s currently 9.5% down on a week ago, and 43% down in the past month. Presently, it’s trading in the region of A$43,850 (US$34K). Ethereum has fared a little better, just 3.2% down this week (and 33% this month). Elsewhere it was a sea of red: Cardano lost 9%, XRP (-17.2%), Polkadot (-6%), Uniswap (-13.3%), Bitcoin Cash (-14.7%, Litecoin (-12.9%), Chainlink (-22.1%), Aave (-11.1%) and Synthetix (-17.5%).

Bitcoin finished the month more than 36% down, in its worst performance since losing 37% in November 2018. The price is currently 3.9% below a week ago and it’s trading around A$48K (US$37K), which is around A$10K (US$7K) higher than it began the year. There are reports long term holders are buying the dip in preparation for a 2013 style double pump. Ethereum has seen a 9.3% pump in the past 24 hours and finishes the week 1.3% up. ETH volume has overtaken BTC volume on some days according to CoinGecko (which also counts DEX volume) and talk of the Flippening is once again doing the rounds. Polkadot was flat, XRP increased 9%, Chainlink was up 22.5%, Litecoin (2.8%) and EOS (17.8%). Bitcoin Cash fell 3.6%, Stellar (-7.4%), Aave (-2.6%) and Synthetix (-7.2%).

Congratulations, you’ve just survived “the largest capitulation event in Bitcoin’s history”. Since it peaked above A$76K (US$59K) on May 9, Bitcoin has taken the elevator down to around A$41K (US$32K) and has since recovered to around A$50,500 (US$38K). It’s still down 10.7% since last Tuesday and 22.7% for the month – although zooming out it’s almost 300% up on a year ago. Altcoins were hit harder and are recovering faster with many up 20-30% in the past day. Ethereum finishes the week 20.1% down at the time of writing, XRP (-34.1%), Bitcoin Cash (-29.7%), Litecoin (-35%), Chainlink (-29.6%), Stellar (-32.7%), Aave (-33.2%), Synthetix (-31.9%). The Bitcoin Hash Rate has fallen from a 7-day average of 180TH/s on May 14 to 145 TH/s currently. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 10, the lowest level since April 2020 — but as analyst Mati Greenspan points out it may: “Just happen to have been the greatest buying opportunity in history”.

It hasn’t been a great week, with Bitcoin currently 22.6% down on last Tuesday to trade just above A$55K (US$42.8K). It’s corrected around 30% in a month for its worst performance since Black Thursday (still, there were seven larger corrections between 2015 and 2017.) It wasn’t all bad – while ETH corrected 18.2%, it’s still up 38.4% this month and the market cap topped half a trillion US for the first time this week. XRP was up 4.3%, Polkadot was up 4.7%, AAVE increased 28.7% and Synthetix was up 20.1% apparently on rumours something big is happening this week. Bitcoin Cash lost 22%, Litecoin was down 23.6%, Chainlink -22.4%, Stellar lost 4.8%, EOS lost 4.7%. Last week The Fear and Greed Index was around 68 (greed) but it took a dive to 20 (extreme fear) yesterday, the lowest point since April 2020. It’s since recovered to 27 (fear). Glassnode attributes the dip mainly to 1.1 million noobs panic selling.

Bitcoin is down 2.2% this week to trade at just under A$71,600. But Ethereum has been hogging the spotlight again, peaking at a new all-time high a few hours ago of A$5,359. It’s since pulled back to finish the week up 16.5% at $5,089. The record price came within 24 hours of the highest day of address activity in ETH’s six-year history. “Generally, when active addresses grow, prices will follow,” notes Santiment. New retail interest appears to be flowing to classic, more established names with Bitcoin Cash up 32.3%, Litecoin up 23.5%, Chainlink (12.5%), Stellar (21%), Ethereum Classic (106%) and EOS (38%). XRP lost 9.9%, Polkadot (-1.9%), AAVE (-14.9%) and Synthetix (-12.7%). There are unconfirmed rumours that Synthetix, Chainlink and UniSwap v3 are all set to launch layer 2 scaling within weeks, which if true could help usher in a new DeFi boom.

The two-week bear market is now just a memory, with Bitcoin up 5.5% on last Tuesday to trade above A$73,400 (US$56,850). But it’s Ether that’s been attracting all the attention, up by 12.4% in the past day and more than a third since last week to trade at A$4,360 (US$3,375) at the time of writing. Ether prices have quadrupled this year and appreciated roughly twice as fast as Bitcoin. Everything else was up substantially: Ripple (10.4%), Polkadot (8.2%), Litecoin (16.9%), Bitcoin Cash (19.3%), Chainlink (18.8%), Stellar (12.5%), EOS (17.1%) — which is on the verge of being flipped by AAVE (26.3%) — and Synthetix (14%). Bitcoin dominance has fallen to 46.4% (in the last bull market dominance fell all the way to 32%). The Fear and Greed Index has recovered from 27 (fear) last week to 61 (greed) today.