In Markets
Crypto and traditional markets came storming back this week after Donald Trump temporarily walked back some of his tariff proposals. But with new economic data rolling in and new hostilities between India and Pakistan, it’s not clear which direction markets will head. Interestingly, Vanguard says 97% of its retirement product clients haven’t made a trade this year, suggesting many hope the current volatility is merely temporary. Bitcoin has surpassed silver to become the seventh-largest asset globally by market cap, with its dominance against other cryptocurrencies surpassing 63%, the highest level since early 2021.
Bitcoin is up 8% this week to trade around A$148,106 (US$95,266), and Ethereum has seen some long-awaited glimmers of optimism about its future translate into a 15% gain to trade around $2,805 (US$1,801). A raft of XRP-related ETFs helped XRP to an 11% gain, Solana was up 9%, Dogecoin (13%) and Cardano (14%). The week’s most notable move was Facebook’s crypto project spinoff Sui’s 62.3% gain amid growing memecoin and stablecoin activity, and interest in its handheld gaming device SuiPlay0X1. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 54 or Neutral.
From the OTC desk
Market overview
- Improved risk sentiment: Starting Tuesday, President Trump signalled a potential U-turn on the Chinese trade war, suggesting that high tariffs on Chinese goods would decrease substantially. Market participants interpreted this as a positive indication that a trade deal might be imminent. Risk-on sentiment improved across macro indicators, with the VIX Index (often considered a proxy for a fear index) falling from 32 to 25. Correspondingly, BTC/USD surged from US$87,300 to US$95,240 over the week.
- Race to hoard: Twenty One Capital is a new company led by Strike’s Jack Mallers that hopes to follow in Strategy’s footsteps to accumulate Bitcoin. It has US$1.5 billion in backing from Tether and US$900M from SoftBank and intends to launch with 42,000 Bitcoin in its Treasury. This would make it the third-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally, after Strategy and Mara Holdings. An SEC filing has also revealed that the DeFi Development Corp plans to raise US$1B via securities sales to accumulate Solana. At the same time, SOL Strategies has also announced it has secured US$500M in financing to buy and stake Solana.
- Stablecoins for payments: Mastercard is moving to allow consumers to spend and merchants to accept payments using stablecoins. The company is working closely with stablecoin issuers Circle and Paxos to enable merchants to accept stablecoin payments amid regulatory changes in the US.
OTC desk activity
- We are observing profit-taking matching up against fresh buyers for BTC pairs.
- Significant Stablecoin off-ramp flows are occurring across the board.
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Wednesday, 30 April, 11:45 am: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Consensus 50.2%)
- Wednesday, 30 April, 7:00 pm: EA GDP Growth Rate YoY (Consensus 1%)
- Thursday, 1 May, 12:00 am: US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Consensus 0.1%)
- Thursday, 1 May, 11:30 am: AU Balance of Trade, (Consensus A$3.1B)
- Friday, 2 May, 10:30 pm: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Consensus 135k)
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Arizona passes Bitcoin reserve bills
The Arizona state legislature has voted to pass two Bitcoin reserve bills. The bills would enable the state’s treasury and retirement system to allocate up to 10% of funds to Bitcoin and other digital assets. Governor Katie Hobbs previously threatened to veto all bills presented to her due to a disagreement over disability funding; however, legislation that appears to have resolved that dispute was passed on April 24.
ARK raises Bitcoin forecast
ARK Invest has decided its former Bitcoin price target of US$1.5M (A$2.3M) by 2030 wasn’t bullish enough and is now predicting a bull case of US$2.4M (A$3.7M). That’s based on a new experimental valuation model by respected analyst David Puell. Ark’s base (or most likely) case is US$1.2 million (A$1.9M), and its bear case is US$500K (A$777K). “Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” the report says, projecting Bitcoin will take market share from gold and see growing demand from emerging markets.
Good year for crypto deals
According to VC billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, crypto acquisitions and public listings in the US reached US$8.2 billion (A$12.7B) across 88 transactions in the first four months of 2025. That’s triple the total value of all deals made in 2024.
XRP ETFs but no spot ETF just yet
Pro Shares has received approval from the SEC to launch three XRP ETFs on April 30 (one ETF is short XRP, one is leveraged, and one is leveraged short). XRP futures will go live on May 19 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Settled in USD, there’s a large size (50,000 XRP) and a micro product (2,500 XRP). Futures are a way to speculate on price movements or hedge trades and allow parties to buy or sell assets at a set price on a specified future date.
Bitcoin ETFs take in billions of dollars
The Bitcoin ETFs have surged back to life, taking in almost US$3.1 billion (A$4.8B) last week for the best showing in five months and the second highest inflow week to date. CoinShares James Butterfill attributed the inflows to investors seeing digital assets as an “emerging safe haven.” Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warned today that “we are on the brink of the monetary order, the domestic political and the international world orders breaking down due to unsustainable, bad fundamentals that can be easily seen and measured.” The Ether ETFs also broke an eight-week negative streak, with US$183M (A$284M) of inflows. Most of that came on Friday when the ETFs hauled in US$104.1M (A$162M) for the best day since Feb 4.
Ethereum will scale the L1
Ethereum devs have proposed testing an increase in the L1 gas limit to 150M in the Fusaka fork, scheduled for Q3 or Q4, following next week’s Pectra fork. The gas limit is essentially a cap on how much computation the L1 can handle, so increasing it by a factor of four from the current 36M limit would significantly scale transactions on the L1. The proposal has support with core devs call organiser Tim Beiko reporting “strong confidence around shipping PeerDAS and raising the L1 gas limit.”
PeerDAS in Fusaka will expand data availability, enabling L2s to scale faster. Meanwhile, Ethereum dev Dankrad Feist proposed scaling the gas limit every 6.6 minutes for a 100x boost over four years. That could result in 2,000 TPS for the Ethereum L1. He also said most validators will be verifying ZK proofs within two years, opening the door to even faster speeds. Separately, the devs dropped the planned EVM overhaul (EOF) from the Fusaka fork.
European regulator proposes ban on public blockchains
The Ethereum Foundation’s James Smith has highlighted proposalsby the European Data Protection Board that explicitly recommend permissioned blockchains over public ones and discourage on-chain data storage. The proposals state that if blockchain data cannot be deleted individually, “this may require deleting the whole blockchain.” The rules would effectively outlaw public blockchains in Europe. Feedback on the proposals is open until June 30.
Strategy’s strategy copied
Twenty One Capitalis a new company led by Strike’s Jack Mallers that hopes to follow in Strategy’s footsteps to accumulate Bitcoin. It has US$1.5 billion (A$2.3B) in backing from Tether and US$900M (A$1.4B) from SoftBank and intends to launch with 42,000 Bitcoin in its Treasury. An SEC filing revealed that the DeFi Development Corpplans to raise US$1B (A$1.5B) via securities sales to accumulate Solana. At the same time, SOL Strategies has also announced it has secured US$500M (A$777M) in financing to buy and stake Solana.
Independent Reserve crypto & Bitcoin podcast – Episode 23
Episode 23 goes live from 5.30pm AEST. Host Lee Eaton is joined by Steve Vallas, Managing Director of Blockchain APAC, and Richelle Cox, Chief Operating Officer of Blockchain APAC, with a special cameo appearance from Independent Reserve CEO, Adrian Przelozny.
In this wide-ranging discussion, Steve and Richelle offer insights into the complexities of organising major crypto events across different regions, the challenges and opportunities presented by the evolving global regulatory environment, and their own personal and professional journeys within the blockchain space. The conversation also explores the influence of artificial intelligence in streamlining operational processes, the changing nature of risk and compliance roles, and the cultural nuances observed across the international crypto community.
Full episode here: https://youtu.be/4dHemze85ko
Bits and pieces
Global bank Citi predicts that “2025 has the potential to be blockchain’s ‘ChatGPT’ moment” thanks to the growing use of stablecoins and regulatory clarity in the US. The US Federal Reserve has deleted its previous crypto guidancerequiring banks to get pre-approval before getting involved in crypto activities. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which clears around US$10 trillion (A$15.5T) of securities per day, has demonstrated a new permissioned blockchainfor securities settlement.
Until next week, happy trading!
