A massive Bitcoin sell wall at the psychological US$100K (A$153.8K) mark is proving difficult to overcome. Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, told CoinDesk it’s unlikely to fall any time soon. “I would expect we oscillate around these levels until the new year,” he told CoinDesk. Bitcoin finishes the week up 2.6% to trade around A$144,150 (US$93.9K). Microstrategy’s Michael Saylor announced it had acquired another 55,500 Bitcoin today, and Galaxy Research says that most Bitcoin selling is coming from 2024 buyers who got in above A$86.1K/US$56K. The ETH/BTC ratio hit its lowest level in three years last week (0.0318) but bounced 15% to 0.3660 as Ethereum gained while Bitcoin retreated. Ethereum finished the week up 10% to trade around A$5,302 (US$3,411), and Bitcoin dominance has fallen slightly to 57.4%. Solana hit a new all-time high this week but fell back to finish the week -2%. Other altcoins have surged, including XRP, which gained 29%, and Cardano — which has just been awarded an A- rating by Weiss Crypto — gained 27%. Dogecoin rose 5%, and Shiba Inu was flat. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 82, or Extreme Greed.
From the IR OTC Desk
In Australia, the monthly CPI numbers will be out tomorrow, with the forecast expecting it to rise 20bps to 2.3%. If this eventuates, it will be the 3rd consecutive month that inflation has been within the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. Despite this, the market is still confident that the RBA will hold the cash rate at 4.35% at the December meeting.
In Singapore, SGD experienced a significant rise against the US dollar (USD) in mid-2024, reflecting confidence in Singapore’s strong economic fundamentals, including robust GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in Q3 and prudent monetary policies by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). This appreciation was further supported by resilient trade performance and safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties. However, the SGD’s strength waned and has essentially returned to levels before this 10-year high as the USD rebounded on the back of strong US economic data, hawkish Federal Reserve policies, and increased global risk aversion. While Singapore’s economy remains fundamentally sound, its currency’s movements highlight its sensitivity to external macroeconomic dynamics, especially trade and global investor sentiment.
The OTC desk has been firing on all cylinders this week with as many customers building positions as those taking profits. We won’t go as far as to suggest money is moving from weak hands to strong, but it does make you think. For a few days now (until this morning!) Bitcoin has been flirting with the magical six figure number (US$100k). We thought we’d take a look back at the last big psychological number – US$10k. How long did we bump against that sell wall before breaking through? Can we somehow extrapolate the data from back then to give us an idea about how long this $100k barrier will last? The answer is (disappointingly) “no”. Back in 2017 we barely paused at the $10k price point before blasting through and rising a further 10% over the next day. How long we’ll be under $100k is anyone’s guess, but from our point of view – rising above is a matter of when, not if.
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In Headlines
Crypto Exchange and Organisation of the Year
We’re proud to announce that Independent Reserve has once again been named Digital Currency Exchange of the Year and Blockchain Organisation of the Year at the Australian 2024 Blockies! These prestigious awards are a testament to our commitment to innovation and excellence in the blockchain space. We extend our gratitude to DECA (Digital Economy Council of Australia) for hosting a fantastic evening and to our incredible Australian team, customers, and partners who made this success possible.
Thriving Australian crypto community
Last weekend, we were at the Australian Crypto Convention, where the atmosphere was electric with excitement about the bull market and the incredible growth of the blockchain and crypto industry. It was inspiring to connect with industry leaders, innovators, and enthusiasts, exchanging insights and exploring emerging trends. Thank you to everyone who stopped by – we’re inspired by the energy and enthusiasm in the community and excited to keep contributing to the growth and innovation of this dynamic industry.
Dinosaur coins arise!
Stablecoin supply has grown 10% in three weeks, suggesting retail investors are flooding back in. Many of these new buyers appear to prefer long-standing utility projects over meme coins, with so-called “dinosaur coins” seeing enormous growth. Cardano has tripled in 17 days, Stellar shot up 444% in November, and XRP has outpaced Bitcoin this year. On Friday, it surged to a three-year high of US$1.49, its highest price since May 2021 and 3X up from election day.
Goodbye Gary Gensler!
It’s official: Crypto arch-nemesis and SEC boss Gary Gensler announced he will leave the organisation on January 20, the same day President-Elect Donald Trump vowed to fire him. Another Democrat-appointed SEC Commissioner, Jaime Lizárraga, is also stepping down for personal reasons. However, the SEC can’t be totally stacked with Republicans, with only three commissioners able to be appointed by the ruling party and the remaining two by the opposition. Traders on prediction market Kalshi currently give former Binance.US CEO Brian Brooks a 40% chance of becoming chair, with Robinhood chief legal officer Dan Gallagher at 30%.
Another SEC regulation demolished in court
A federal judge in Texas struck down the SEC’s overhaul of dealer rules it adopted earlier this year. The judge found the SEC had overstepped its legal authority in issuing the regulations, marking the third time courts have vacated SEC regulations this year. Crypto organisations opposed the rule as it changed the definition of dealer to include liquidity providers and automated market makers controlling more than US$50M in capital.
Pro crypto administration
Trump has nominated Bitcoin advocate and Key Square Capital Management founder Scott Bessent for the all-important Treasury Secretary role — and it’s one of the few Trump nominations not to prove massively controversial. “I have been excited about the President’s embrace of crypto, and I think it fits very well with the Republican Party, crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay,” Bessent said. He also told Fox Business, “I think everything is on the table with Bitcoin.” Billionaire Howard Lutnick, another major crypto proponent who had also been vying for the Treasury role, has instead been appointed Commerce Secretary. He’s the head of Cantor Fitzgerald, which holds most of Tether’s US Treasury backing.
Crypto czar?
Trump is also holding discussions with various people in the crypto industry about appointing an insider to a new White House post specifically to deal with crypto policy. The team is vetting candidates, and the new role (which may or may not be something like a ‘Crypto Czar’).
ETFs go crazy
The Bitcoin ETFs took in a record US$3.353 billion net inflows last week, while the Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of US$68.4 million (mostly from Grayscale). Things turned around on Friday however with a US$91.3M inflow led by BlackRock. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options saw an “unheard of” US$1.9 billion in volume on the first day of trading according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Solana hits new all-time high
Solana has fought its way back from its collapse to US$8 in the wake of the FTX debacle two years ago to hit a new all-time high of US$263 this week. At that price, 1 Solana is worth 7.72% of 1 ETH, which is a new record, too. The supply has increased considerably, however, since the last all-time high due to inflation. Cboe BZX Exchange this week submitted four 19b-4 filings for Solana ETFs from Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares and Canary Capital.
When will Ethereum rise?
Ethereum holders have been feeling left out of this bull run, with other altcoins skyrocketing recently and Bitcoin seeing a 164% gain over the past year while ETH rose just 63%. But sentiment finally appears to be shifting, with ETH futures open interest hitting a new all-time high of more than US$20 billion on Friday, signaling bullish momentum according to CryptoQuant. The DeFi Report notes ETH has 2X Bitcoin’s onchain users, a raft of institutions building on it, offers yield to holders, and is almost self-sufficient on fee revenue, unlike Bitcoin or Solana. In the last bull run, Bitcoin hit a new ATH in the fourth quarter, but Ethereum didn’t follow until the next quarter, and then it did 5.4X in the first four months of 2021. Popular crypto analyst Wolf says his technical analysis of a “compressing 3-year triangle consolidation since November 2021” suggests it will hit a cycle top of US$20K over the next year.
Until next week, happy trading!
