In Markets
President Donald Trump has signalled a potential narrowing of his tariff plans for “Liberation Day” (April 2), which saw a nice uptick in markets, even though prices remain vulnerable to the constantly changing situation. A few hours ago, Trump said, “I may give a lot of countries breaks, but it’s reciprocal.” The news helped crypto compound small gains made after US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell held interest rates steady last week and stated his belief that Trump’s tariffs will only have a “transitory” effect on inflation. Michael Saylor’s Strategy also bought another 6,911 Bitcoin for its war-chest. Bitcoin finishes the week up 6% to trade around A$139,302 (US$87,407), while Ethereum gained 9% to trade around A$3,304 (US$2,076). XRP was only up 6% despite news the SEC had dropped its appeal, Solana was up 11%, Dogecoin is up 7%, and Cardano gained 3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 45, or Fear.
From the OTC Desk
Market overview
- Relief rally: The market rebounded from its lows after last week’s FOMC Press Conference. BTC/USD was trading at lows of US$81,400 before climbing to highs of US$88,400 yesterday evening. The U.S. Central Bank kept rates steady but highlighted downside growth risks due to tariffs. Correspondingly, policymakers suggested that rate cuts totalling 0.5% for 2025 would be expected, along with a plan to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction.
- Tariff narrowing: Adding to the positive market sentiment, equities rallied across the board after signs that President Donald Trump’s trade sanctions may be narrower than initially expected. On Monday, the President signalled possible exemptions or reductions among trading partners. Altcoins also started to show some life, with the Total3 Index (Crypto Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH) trading at US$830B, up from US$790B at the start of the week.
OTC desk activity
- Muted flows over the week; saw more two-way interest in stablecoins as well as BTC against fiat pairs.
Key Economic Calendar Events (AEDT)
- Wednesday, 26 March, 11.30p.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Consensus: -0.7%)
- Thursday, 27 March, 11:30 p.m.: U.S. GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Consensus: 2.3%)
- Friday, 28 March, 11:30 p.m.: U.S. Core PCE Price Index MoM (Consensus: 0.3%)
- Tuesday, 1 April, 12:45 p.m.: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Australia’s crypto regulation plans
The Australian Treasury has released a “Statement on Developing an Innovative Australian Digital Asset Industry.” The white paper says Treasury, ASIC and the RBA will embrace asset tokenisation, real world assets and wholesale central bank digital currencies as part of a push to modernise the financial system. Major Digital Asset Platforms will need to hold an Australian Financial Services license and meet minimum capital requirements and custody rules to help prevent collapses like the FTX debacle in 2022. Stablecoins will be regulated under a new ‘stored-value facility’ framework overseen by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). No new crypto-specific tax legislation will be introduced for now but the ATO will form a working group to provide clearer advice to the industry under existing laws.
Fidelity to launch fund on Ethereum
The US$5.8 trillion (A$9.2T) asset manager Fidelity has filed with the US SEC to register a blockchain-based tokenised USD money market fund, initially built on Ethereum and potentially expanding to other chains. Subject to regulatory approval, the “OnChain” share class of its Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund is expected to go live on May 30.
Real World Assets gain popularity on-chain
On-chain real-world assets (excluding most stablecoins) have now crossed the $10 billion mark, with Maker and Ethena’s USDtb accounting for more than US$1 billion (A$1.59B) each. USDtb is backed by BlackRock money market fund shares. BlackRock’s own BUIDL added US$800 million (A$1.27B) in just two weeks to hit US$1.41B (A$2.24B). Treasury-backed tokens reached a record US$4.2 billion (A$6.7B) market cap this quarter, and dominate the RWA sector, followed by tokenised commodities at US$1.26B (A$2B) like Paxos Gold (US$500M/A$795M)). Analysts say the preference for T-bills is because they offer safer and better yield than many DeFi protocols.
Ripple appeal dropped
The SEC will no longer pursue its appeal in the Ripple case says CEO Brad Garlinghouse. “This is it — the moment we’ve been waiting for. The SEC will drop its appeal — a resounding victory for Ripple, for crypto, every way you look at it,” Garlinghouse posted. The SEC’s multi-year case against Ripple began in December 2020, accusing it of raising US$1.3 billion (A$2B) through the sale of unregistered securities. While Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP sold on exchanges is not a security, she found that initial institutional sales were. The SEC sought to challenge parts of that ruling but has now dropped the case. XRP has gained one-third in the past two weeks.
Financial advisors like crypto ETFs
A survey of thousands of US Financial Advisors from TMX VettaFi found that 57% plan to increase allocations to crypto ETFs this year. Just 1% are planning to decrease them. Interestingly, most advisors are keen to invest in crypto company equity ETFs, rather than spot ETFs which only attract about 22% of the interest. Digital asset investment products recorded US$644M (A$1B) in inflows last week according to CoinShares.
Tornado Cash sanctions lifted
US Treasury officials have lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, a coin mixer infamously used by North Korean hackers to launder funds. In August 2023, two founders of the protocol were charged over conspiracy to launder money and sanctions violations. Despite the sanctions, Tornado Cash remained online throughout, highlighting Ethereum’s decentralisation.
Trump appears at crypto conference
President Donald Trump addressed the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on March 20, restating his plans to ensure the US is “the crypto capital of the world”. Technically, it’s the first time a sitting President has spoken at a crypto conference, even though it was a pre-recorded address and he previously appeared at a Bitcoin conference while campaigning. He talked up the crypto regulatory shift seen since his administration took power, and called the crypto industry “pioneers” that will improve “our banking and payment system and promote greater privacy, safety, security and wealth for American consumers and businesses alike. You will unleash an explosion of economic growth.”
Swap gold for BTC?
The question Bitcoiners really want answered is how the US Government will manage to acquire more Bitcoin for its new reserve if it can’t spend any taxpayer money doing so. Bo Hines, White House executive director of the president’s council of advisers on digital assets said on a podcast this week there are “countless ideas” on how to do so and “best ideas” will be enacted by Trump. “If we actually realise the gains on [the U.S. gold holdings], that would be a budget-neutral way to acquire more Bitcoin… I’ll actually point you to Senator [Cynthia] Lummis’ Bitcoin Act of 2025, in which she believes that we can identify the real true value of some of these gold certificates.” Lummis’ Bitcoin reserve legislation proposes buying 1 million BTC over five years through the sale of Fed gold certificates.
MegaETH L2 hits 20,000 TPS
Ethereum L2 MegaETH notched up 20,000 transactions per second on day one of its public testnet, and 10 millisecond blocktimes. Backed by Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin, the L2 was inspired by Solana’s design choices to emphasise performance over decentralization. It uses a beefy data centre style centralised sequencer and uses EigenDA for data availability to hit those numbers. Trading platforms GTE and Infinex are already using the infrastructure.
Independent Reserve hosts expert crypto panel discussion
Last week, we teamed up with Vikara Capital and Real Vision to host an expert crypto panel at a Sydney’s CBD hotel. The event was led by Independent Reserve’s Tim Tyndale and featured special guests Luke McFarlane, Jamie Coutts, and Mark Riccio. The panel covered a range of topics, including macroeconomic trends, the potential for an altcoin season, and Bitcoin’s dominance over the years. If you couldn’t attend in person, the full discussion was recorded and will premiere on YouTube this Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to subscribe to the Independent Reserve YouTube channel to get notified when it goes live.
Until next week, happy trading!
