In Markets
Wall Street’s major indexes fell sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 2.4%, the Nasdaq off 2.6%, and the USD falling to three-year lows. But Bitcoin actually increased 2.7% in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday (alongside gold, which was up 2.9%), leading to speculation BTC is finally becoming the safe haven long promised. QCP Capital said the increase could just be “holiday-driven noise” but might also “mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin.” Strategy also announced it has bought another 6,556 BTC. Crypto markets remain weighed down by uncertainty due to the unpredictable twists in Donald Trump’s trade war and recent attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, with volumes on major crypto exchanges at six-month lows.
Bitcoin finishes the week up 3% to trade around A$136,077 (US$87,162) while Ethereum fell 3% this week to trade around A$2,454 (US$1,574). Almost 60% of ETH holders are now underwater, which is worse than during the last bear market bottom for ETH. XRP lost 3%, Solana gained 5%, Dogecoin was flat, and Cardano lost 2%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 39, or Fear.
From the OTC Desk
Market overview
- Gold extends bull run: Gold achieved new all-time highs, reaching US$3,440 per ounce in the last 24 hours. The surge marks a significant milestone, with prices up nearly 30% since the beginning of the year. The rally is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China over Trump’s tariff policies and further fueled investor demand for gold as safe-haven asset.
- U.S. dollar index (DXY) decline: The DXY has been on a steady downtrend in recent weeks, driven by rising trade tensions sparked by Trump’s tariff policies. Further rattling markets, Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and suggestions of his potential removal have sparked fears over the Federal Reserve’s independence. This erosion of confidence in the dollar has prompted a flight to perceived safe-haven assets. Gold has surged to an all-time high, while Bitcoin has also posted sharp gains amid the turmoil and is trading near US$88,400.
- ECB rate decision: At its April 17, 2025 meeting, the European Central Bank reduced all three of its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, the deposit rate to 2.25%, and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%. The move signals the ECB’s increased confidence that inflation is steadily moving back toward its 2% target. However, the ECB warned that global trade tensions particularly those involving the U.S. are dampening sentiment and tightening financial conditions across the euro area.
- More institutional BTC buys: Strategy added another 6,556 BTC to its holdings at an average purchase price of US$84,785 per coin. Meanwhile, Japan-based Metaplanet acquired 330 BTC for approximately US$28.2 million. In addition, London-based Abarax Capital purchased 2,949 BTC in a deal valued at US$250 million, underscoring the growing interest in Bitcoin among institutional investors.
OTC desk activity
- Two-way stablecoin flows, with significant on-ramp volume
- Notable BTC profit-taking amid the recent price uptick
Key economic calendar events (AEST)
- Wednesday, 23 Apr, 11:45 p.m: U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI (Consensus: 49)
- Wednesday, 23 Apr, 11:45 p.m: U.S. Flash Service PMI (Consensus: 52.8)
- Thursday, 24 Apr, 10:30 p.m: U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM MAR (Consensus: 1.8%)
- Friday, 25 Apr, 12:00 a.m: U.S. Existing Home Sales MAR (Consensus: 4.12M)
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Crypto ETFs pile up
There are now 72 active crypto-related ETF proposals under consideration by the SEC “awaiting approval to list or list options,” reports Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. “Everything from XRP, Litecoin and Solana to Penguins, Doge and 2x MELANIA and everything in between. Gonna be a wild year.” After seven weeks of outflows, Ethereum ETF assets under management have now fallen to US$4.57 billion (A$7.1B). The Bitcoin ETFs have US$94.5 billion (A$147.2B) in AUM. Interestingly, family offices show a 5x greater preference for investing in ETH ETFs than BTC ETFs.
Vitalik’s plan to scale ETH L1 100x
After being left to ossify as the rollup scaling plan was put into effect, scaling the Ethereum L1 is very much back on the agenda. Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin has proposed replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine’s (EVM) “instruction set architecture” code layer with RISC-V’s version. Buterin says the idea is “radical”, but it’s the only way to significantly scale the L1 execution layer. The change would still allow devs to write in Solidity, and smart contracts would be backwards-compatible. The change aims to increase EVM compatibility with zero-knowledge proofs and could see proof times cut from 5 minutes to 3 seconds. This is a long-term plan with the consensus layer also being overhauled with Justin Drake’s Beam Chain plan.
Meet our team at Money2020 in Bangkok
Join us at Money2020 Asia, happening from 22–24 April 2025 in Bangkok, where we’ll dive into all things fintech and the latest trends. Lasanka Perera, CEO of Independent Reserve Singapore, Ruben, Head of Sales Singapore, and Mark, Head of Trading, will be there in person – ready to connect, share insights, and explore the future of money with fellow innovators in the space.
USDC supply grows by 17 billion since January
Circle’s USDC stablecoin has grown by US$17 billion (A$26.5B) this year to a total supply of around US$61 billion (A$95B). The 38.6% increase vastly outpaced Tether’s USDT’s modest 5% growth. Circle is working towards an IPO and is launching a payment and cross-border remittance platform this week to allow firms to settle transactions in stablecoins. The Wall Street Journal also reported that Circle and BitGo plan to apply for US bank charters and licenses. Stablecoin issuers are fighting off a challenge from existing banks like Bank of America that want to restrict stablecoin issuance to banks only.
Bitwise says fundamentals are improving
A new report from Bitwise called Q1 “the best worst quarter in crypto’s history” because a variety of metrics hit new all-time highs even as prices tanked. They include stablecoins (US$218B/A$340B), tokenised real-world assets (US$19B/A$29.6B), BTC futures trading volume (US$800B+/A$1.25T), BTC futures open interest (US$16B/A$25B), BTC held by public companies (688K) and Ethereum and Layer 2 transactions (1.2B+). “It’s fair to ask: What happens next? Will improving fundamentals lift crypto to new all-time highs, or is all the good news already priced in?”
Altseason on the horizon?
In its second quarter investment outlook, Swiss bank Sygnum predicted a resurgence for altcoins, based on “drastically improved” regulations and the fact that “none of the positive developments have been priced in.” “We expect protocols successful in gaining user traction to outperform and Bitcoin’s dominance to decline,” Sygnum wrote.
Ethereum’s Fusaka fork
The Ethereum core devs have finalised a long list of Ethereum Improvement Proposals for consideration in the Fusaka upgrade, which will follow hot on the heels of Pectra (May 7). The list includes proposals to massively scale the number of data blobs (helping L2s to scale) and to help “speed up price discovery” of blob carrying transactions. The controversial and complicated Mega EOF that upgrades the Ethereum Virtual Machine has been included, and allowable smart contracts size has been increased to 265kb.
2025 is the year of RWAs
The dollar value of tokenised real-world assets (RWAs) has grown by 54% to US$21B (A$32.7B) since the election of Donald Trump heralded a more favourable regulatory environment. More than half of the total is on Ethereum, with another 22% on Ethereum L2 zkSync Era. Ethena Labs and Securitize this week launched a new Ethereum L2 called Converge using Arbitrum’s tech, which will bring another US$2 billion (A$3.1B) in RWAs to DeFi. It uses Celestia for data availability, allowing it to crank up the speed to almost 5,000 TPS and offer block times of 100 milliseconds.
Charles Schwab to launch crypto trading
The US$10T (A$15.6T) asset manager Charles Schwab intends to launch crypto trading within 12 months, according to CEO Rick Wurster, who said a 400% increase in traffic to Schwab’s crypto content highlighted the demand. “Our expectation is that with the changing regulatory environment, we are hopeful and likely to be able to launch direct spot crypto,” he said. “Our goal is to do that in the next 12 months, and we are on a great path to be able to do that.”
Bits and pieces
Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield intends to sue the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, alleging that the company is selling unregistered securities to residents. Chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the lawsuit is an exact “copycat case” of the SEC’s 2023 lawsuit, which it dropped after former chair Gary Gensler resigned.
Solana briefly surpassed Ethereum in total USD value of staked assets. Around 65% of the entire Solana supply is staked, while 28% of Ethereum is. Stablecoin transaction volume reached US$27.6 trillion (A$42T) in 2024, with around 95% of the volume settled on Ethereum.
Until next week, happy trading!
