In Markets
The great “Trump Dump” of 2025 has seen carnage in markets around the world, after the US President launched a more dramatic global trade war on “Liberation Day” than expected. US markets seem particularly volatile, with an unfounded rumour of a tariff pause overnight, seeing markets jump trillions before quickly reversing when the story was denied. However, crypto analysts said the event highlighted the fact Trump can stop the turmoil at any moment (though he shows no sign of wanting to). The worst three days of damage appear to have abated temporarily, with Trump’s threat of an additional 50% tariff on China not moving the dial much lower. Crypto markets actually front ran a lot of the plunge, and Bitcoin held up well on Friday, leading to talk of “decoupling”, which dried up during Monday’s plunge. The S&P 500 is down more than 20% since February, putting it in a bear market, but the worst fears of a Black Monday style crash were not realised. Bitcoin dipped to A$123,708 (US$74.41K) yesterday but has since recovered to A$132,141 (US$79,216) to finish the week flat. Ethereum finishes the week down 11% and is trading at two-year lows around A$2,595 (US$1,557). Almost everything else was down, including XRP (-5%), Solana (-11%), Dogecoin (-6%) and Cardano (-7%), but Fartcoin somehow gained 22.3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 24 or Fear.
In Headlines
Good and bad scenarios
The best-case scenario from here is that Trump does manage to negotiate a bunch of new trade deals and then lowers tariffs on those countries to a flat 10% or drops them altogether. Around 70 countries have reportedly reached out to negotiate, with Israel and Vietnam most eager to secure a deal. He might also announce a pause for negotiations to continue. “Should the tariff landscape suddenly change, resulting in reduced or eliminated tariffs between countries, expect an immediate bullish explosion in crypto market caps, alongside stock market prices,” wrote Santiment. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated the tariffs are the “high end of the number” if countries negotiate. The worst-case scenario is that the US falls into recession, inflation shoots up, the EU and China ramp up the trade war, and markets continue to fall. BlackRock’s Larry Fink thinks the US may already be in a recession. Trump has wanted to impose tariffs since the 1980s and seems to think any trade imbalance is unfair to the US, making acceptable deals harder to reach.
Could tariffs propel crypto prices?
In the short term, tariffs are bad for crypto markets – but could they end up propelling prices? Some hopefuls suggest so, with newly pardoned BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes saying: “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC.” He’s tipping an “ascent to $250,000 (A$417K) by year-end.” One theory popular on social media, and reposted by Trump himself, is that the President is crashing the market on purpose to lower the interest rate bill when the US refinances US$9.2T (A$15.3T) of debt this year. However, White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett denied this on Sunday night saying, “It is not a strategy for the markets to crash.” China has actually been selling US bonds, which is pushing rates higher rather than lower, but Bitwise analyst Jeff Park believes a lower dollar and lower yields are both possible and good for Bitcoin. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said: “I think tariffs will weaken the dominant role of the dollar and create space for competitors including bitcoin.”
Hong Kong greenlights staking
Crypto adoption is moving ahead in Asia, with Hong Kong’s financial regulator allowing licensed platforms and ETFs to offer staking services. The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) said providers need to seek permission first and implement a bunch of safeguards. “We have noted investors’ demand for staking services, and the potential for staking activities to contribute to the security of the blockchain network,” the SFC said. Staking is one of 12 initiatives that Hong Kong announced as part of its crypto framework roadmap in February.
Big names tip big things for Bitcoin
The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent compared Bitcoin to Gold during an appearance on Tucker Carlson. “Bitcoin is becoming a store of value, gold has historically been a store of value,” Bessent told Carlson, adding there are “a lot of different stores of value over time.” Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink extolled Bitcoin as a potentially safer alternative to the US dollar in his letter to shareholders. “Decentralised finance is an extraordinary innovation. It makes markets faster, cheaper, and more transparent. Yet that same innovation could undermine America’s economic advantage if investors begin seeing Bitcoin as a safer bet than the dollar.”
DeFi comeback postponed
The much-anticipated DeFi comeback in 2025 is looking pretty shaky. Revenues for most major protocols across Solana, Ethereum, and BNB Chain declined at least 50% in March. The revenue dip was associated with a broader decline in on-chain activity and trading volumes of all major blockchains. MakerDAO (now Sky) was the only major DeFi protocol that increased revenue, reporting an 11% revenue increase to US$10 million in March. A trend similarly seen in MKR (the Sky governance token), which surged 18.38% over the last 3 weeks.
SEC staff reviewing crypto guidance
Acting SEC chair Mark Uyeda reports that staff are reviewing past crypto-related guidance to determine if it still reflects the agency’s current priorities. He listed a bunch of different documents produced by the agency during its war on crypto relating to crypto custody, guidance on crypto to companies, and Bitcoin Futures.
Ep. 22 – Hashlock Web3 security audits, crypto startups and bad actors
In the 22nd episode of the Independent Reserve Bitcoin & Crypto Podcast, host Lee Eaton is joined by Jock Haslam and Fletcher Roberts from Hashlock. In their fight against crypto exploits, bad actors and dodgy developers, these boys have helped build one of the most trusted Web3 security firms in the world.
Full podcast here: https://youtu.be/8yozlzxtnjY
Until next week, happy trading!
