In Markets
Instead of the usual Santa Claus Rally, crypto spent the dying days of 2024 paring back gains made after the election of the pro-crypto Trump administration. Bitcoin fell around 15% in total to just under A$148K/US$92K as the year ended but has since gained 10.3% in the past week to trade at A$163,543/US$102,713 amid corporate buys and a resurgence of inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum gained 10.7% in the past seven days to trade at A$5,894/US$3,700, and investors have withdrawn more than 80,000 ETH from exchanges over that period. XRP has once again overtaken USDT for the number 3 spot, with a 17.7% gain this week. Solana was up 13%, Dogecoin gained 22%, Cardano rose 27%, and Shiba Inu increased 14.1%. The strong US dollar eased back amid reports that Trump’s universal tariffs plan will be more targeted, and US jobs data will come out at the end of the week, which may impact prices. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 76, or Extreme Greed.
From the IR OTC Desk
2024 ended in a lacklustre fashion as the market ground down slowly off the highs, and BTC/USD traded down to US$91,500 before another slow recovery back above the psychological barrier of US$100,000. This could have been tax harvesting-related selling into the close of 2024 or simply market participants closing the year and taking some profits off the table.
There was some fear in the market as the future of Tether in European markets remained unclear. After the European Union’s new stablecoin regulations took effect on December 31st, there were almost US$4 billion in redemptions of USDT, as evidenced by the change in USDT’s market cap from December 24th to January 1st. USDT subsequently experienced some volatility over this period, trading down to 30 basis points below the dollar, but this changed quickly in 2025, and USDT is now trading at a 5 basis point premium after yesterday’s rally.
BTC/USD found some momentum this week after Congress certified Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, trading up to 2025 highs of US$102,229 on Independent Reserve during U.S. trading hours. This week, the markets will be watching out for the FOMC Minutes release. Currently, bond futures are pricing in a 91% chance of rates remaining the same in the January meeting, but this may change after the minutes are released on Thursday.
On the OTC desk, we saw muted flows over the last three weeks due to the holiday period, with some participants interested in purchasing USDT at a discount. There has also been increased interest in XRP and SUI trading pairs.
Key economic calendar events for the coming week (in AEDT) are as follows:
- Wednesday, January 8, 1:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI, Consensus 53
- Thursday, January 9, 5:00 a.m.: FOMC Minutes
- Friday, January 10, 11:30 p.m.: Non-Farm Payrolls, Consensus 160k
- Sunday, January 12, 11:30 a.m.: China Inflation Rate YoY, Consensus 0.1%
For any further information, please feel free to reach out.
In Headlines
Corporate Bitcoin buys
MicroStrategy has announced it bought another 1,020 more Bitcoin on Monday and unveiled a plan to raise another US$2 billion (A$3.2B) via preferred stock offerings (which have no expiry and pay perpetual dividends) to fuel more Bitcoin buys this quarter. In Japan, investment firm Metaplanet said it intends to purchase 10,000 Bitcoin this year. And Texas energy management firm KULR Technology doubled its stack with another US$21 million (A$35M) worth of Bitcoin.
Institutions buy 4X more crypto than last bull run
CoinShares reports that institutional investors poured a record US$44.2 billion dollars (A$70.8B) into global crypto funds in 2024, which is almost four times the previous record set during the 2021 bull market. The US Bitcoin ETFs accounted for the lion’s share of that and took US$35.66 billion (A$57.1B) in net inflows in 2024. Although Bitcoin ETF inflows turned negative toward the end of the year, things turned around on Friday with an impressive US$908.1M (A$1.45B) inflow, the largest since November 21. Meanwhile, the Ether ETFs hauled in a total of US$2.1B (A$3.4B) in December, which was an 83% increase on November’s haul. Polymarket puts the odds of a Solana ETF approval in 2025 at 73%, which VanEck’s head of research, Matthew Sigel, thinks is “underpriced.”
JPMorgan and the ‘debasement trade’
A research note from JPMorgan says the “debasement trade” into gold and Bitcoin is “here to stay.” The bank said money is flowing into the two hard assets due to factors ranging from “structurally higher geopolitical uncertainty since 2022, to persistent high uncertainty about the longer-term inflation backdrop, to concerns about ‘debt debasement’ due to persistently high government deficits across major economies.” Bitcoin was the number one performer amid major US asset classes in 2024 with a 121% gain, while gold saw an annual return of 26.7%, and the NASDAQ 100 posted a 25.6% gain. Bitwise reports that “96% of all advisors received a question from clients about crypto last year… that’s the highest-ever reading from advisors in our 7 years surveying them.”
Overhaul of crypto laws
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says the 119th Congress is “the most pro-crypto Congress in history.” However, experts warn that it could take as long as a year or even two before substantive changes become a reality. The House Financial Services Committee has committed to pass bills in the first 100 days on stablecoins and general market structure, which then go to floor votes. Stablecoin legislation is expected to come first, with the biggest contention being whether tokens needed to be backed 1:1 with USD. The bipartisan Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) is now expected to be the starting point for more ambitious crypto legislation. Cynthia Lummis’s strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill does not appear to have enough support to progress at this stage, but Polymarket bettors think there’s a 40% chance of a reserve in 2025. Trump also has the option of signing an executive order to convert Bitcoin stockpiles into Treasury reserves.
Singapore pulls ahead
Singapore is pulling ahead in the race to become Asia’s preeminent crypto hub and issued twice as many crypto licenses in 2024 as the year before. Thirteen new operators were given the green light, including Anchorage, BitGo, GSOKX, Upbit and OKX. A December study by ApeX Protocol found that Singapore is home to 1,600 blockchain patents, 2,433 industry jobs and 81 crypto exchanges, ahead of Hong Kong’s 890 patents, 1,163 jobs and 52 crypto exchanges. “Hong Kong’s regulatory regime for exchanges is more restrictive in a number of ways that matter — such as custody of customer assets and token listing and delisting policies,” said Angela Ang, senior policy adviser at TRM Labs. “This may have tipped the balance in Singapore’s favour.”
IRS drops broker rule during holidays
The DeFi Education Fund, the Blockchain Association, and the Texas Blockchain Council have joined forces to sue the Internal Revenue Service over new “broker” regulations it dropped during the holidays that require DeFi projects to report customer information. The lawsuit argues that DeFi trading front ends simply allow users to access crypto protocols and are not brokers because “there is simply no broker-like entity involved in a decentralised transaction.” The Blockchain Association said the rules infringe on privacy and would push the industry offshore.
Crypto’s infinity age
Research and brokerage firm Bernstein says crypto is entering the “infinity age” where boom/bust cycles mitigate and crypto is seen as just another part of finance. The firm tips a doubling of everything: it has a US$200K (A$320K) Bitcoin price target by the end of the year, tips inflows of US$50B (A$80B) into corporate treasuries, US$70B (A$113B) more into Bitcoin ETFs and says global stablecoin market will cross US$500 billion (A$800B) after the US passes stablecoin legislation. Meanwhile, Steno Research tips 2025 will be crypto’s best year ever, with Bitcoin topping US$150K (A$240K) and Ether topping US$8K (A$12.8K), reflecting “an unprecedentedly favourable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic climate marked by declining interest rates and improved liquidity, and the historically strong post-Bitcoin-halving performance.”
Until next week, happy trading!
