Market update

Wall Street’s major indexes fell sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 2.4%, the Nasdaq off 2.6%, and the USD falling to three-year lows. But Bitcoin actually increased 2.7% in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday (alongside gold, which was up 2.9%), leading to speculation BTC is finally becoming the safe haven long promised. QCP Capital said the increase could just be “holiday-driven noise” but might also “mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin.” Strategy also announced it has bought another 6,556 BTC. Crypto markets remain weighed down by uncertainty due to the unpredictable twists in Donald Trump’s trade war and recent attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, with volumes on major crypto exchanges at six-month lows.

Bitcoin finishes the week up 3% to trade around A$136,077 (US$87,162) while Ethereum fell 3% this week to trade around A$2,454 (US$1,574). Almost 60% of ETH holders are now underwater, which is worse than during the last bear market bottom for ETH. XRP lost 3%, Solana gained 5%, Dogecoin was flat, and Cardano lost 2%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 39, or Fear.

While crypto markets remain approximately A$1.6 trillion (US$1T) down from December’s peak, things are certainly looking more positive than last week — Donald Trump’s erratic trade war remains the prime mover. Markets saw big gains after he suspended tariffs above 10% on everyone but China for 90 days and later exempted big tech products from China, too (though how long for remains up in the air). Trump was left with no choice after investors began dumping US bonds — one of the clearest warning signs of an approaching full-blown financial crisis. The Wall Street Journal says there are now worrying signs investors are starting to lose faith in American economic management. Many analysts anticipate a range-bound pattern for Bitcoin until the tariff picture becomes clearer. “BTC continues to consolidate within the US$80K-$90K (A$126K to $142K) range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach to the tariff situation,’ said QCP Capital on Telegram. Bitcoin has held up incredibly well throughout the crisis and finishes the week up 6% to trade around A$133,784 (US$84,891), while Ethereum is up 3% to trade around A$2,565 (US$1,612). XRP gained 14%, Solana surged 20%, Dogecoin was up 8%, and Cardano gained 9%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 31, or Fear.

The great “Trump Dump” of 2025 has seen carnage in markets around the world, after the US President launched a more dramatic global trade war on “Liberation Day” than expected. US markets seem particularly volatile, with an unfounded rumour of a tariff pause overnight, seeing markets jump trillions before quickly reversing when the story was denied. However, crypto analysts said the event highlighted the fact Trump can stop the turmoil at any moment (though he shows no sign of wanting to). The worst three days of damage appear to have abated temporarily, with Trump’s threat of an additional 50% tariff on China not moving the dial much lower. Crypto markets actually front ran a lot of the plunge, and Bitcoin held up well on Friday, leading to talk of “decoupling”, which dried up during Monday’s plunge. The S&P 500 is down more than 20% since February, putting it in a bear market, but the worst fears of a Black Monday style crash were not realised. Bitcoin dipped to A$123,708 (US$74.41K) yesterday but has since recovered to A$132,141 (US$79,216) to finish the week flat. Ethereum finishes the week down 11% and is trading at two-year lows around A$2,595 (US$1,557). Almost everything else was down, including XRP (-5%), Solana (-11%), Dogecoin (-6%) and Cardano (-7%), but Fartcoin somehow gained 22.3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 24 or Fear.

It’s April 1, meaning we can finally say goodbye to the worst quarter for the Bitcoin price since 2018, and the worst quarter for Ethereum since 2018. The price plunge seems mostly due to macroeconomic factors, with the Tesla chart mirroring Ethereum’s and US stocks recording their worst quarter relative to the rest of the world in 23 years. The ASX is also down 4% this year. February’s US core inflation came in above expectations at 2.8%, and consumer spending is growing by just 0.4%. The big worry is President Donald Trump’s looming ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, which The Kobeissi Letter claims “will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Markets are in for a wild week.” Crypto trading volumes are down 70% from the peak, and the total market cap has declined from A$5.94 trillion (US$3.9T) to A$4.26T (US $2.67T). One potential bright spot is that FTX has begun to repay creditors it owes more than A$80K (US$50K) this week. Bitcoin finishes the week down 6% to trade around A$131,763 (US$82,275), while Ethereum lost another 12% to trade around A$2,910 (US$1,817). Everything else was down, including XRP (-15%), Solana (-11%), Dogecoin (-11%) and Cardano (-10%). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 34 or Fear.

President Donald Trump has signalled a potential narrowing of his tariff plans for “Liberation Day” (April 2), which saw a nice uptick in markets, even though prices remain vulnerable to the constantly changing situation. A few hours ago, Trump said, “I may give a lot of countries breaks, but it’s reciprocal.” The news helped crypto compound small gains made after US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell held interest rates steady last week and stated his belief that Trump’s tariffs will only have a “transitory” effect on inflation. Michael Saylor’s Strategy also bought another 6,911 Bitcoin for its war-chest. Bitcoin finishes the week up 4% to trade around A$139,302 (US$87,407), while Ethereum gained 7% to trade around A$3,304 (US$2,076). XRP was only up 5% despite news the SEC had dropped its appeal, Solana was up 9%, Dogecoin is up 5%, and Cardano gained 2%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 45, or Fear.

After a rocky start, conditions have begun to improve this week. Crypto markets appear mostly driven by macro news at present, and following a significant decline, the S&P 500 had its best day of the year on March 15. This uplift followed news that a deal had been struck to avert the periodic US Government shutdown. But geopolitical risks and recession fears are still weighing heavily and the effects of President Trump’s tariff war remain unpredictable. The EU has now imposed retaliatory tariffs on A$43.8 billion (US$28B) of US goods. CryptoQuant’s Apparent Demand metric for Bitcoin has dropped to negative 142, while Ethereum is currently trading below its realised price for the first time in two years (the average price people actually bought it for, rather than market price). That said, Bitcoin finishes the week up 4% on seven days ago to trade at A$131,782 (US$84,169), while Ethereum gained 1% to trade at around A$3,033 (US$1,936). XRP got a boost from a new payments license in the UAE and is up 11% while Solana also got a boost from the end of voting on SIMD-228 and is up 8%. Dogecoin gained 11%, and Cardano was up 3%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 32, or Fear.